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 Pakistan's National Security: Hybrid Warfare Challenges & Countermeasures

  • 来源:反恐研究院特约专稿
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【文/ 国家安全-反恐怖主义信息网专栏作者Prof. Dr. Zafar Nawaz Jaspal 】


           Pakistan's National Security: Hybrid WarfareChallenge &Countermeasures

  

The lethality of modern military hardware has made less relevant the total war or full­ scale conventional wars between nations as an instrument of state policy to settle disputes. (1) However, military force remains a useful tool for deterrence rather than compellence and punishment between the nuclear-armed states. This philosophical hypothesis has given impetus to employ sub-conventional conflicts and hybrid warfare as a means to bleed the adversary, especially the nuclear-armed country like Pakistan. Hybrid war is a full-spectrum of war without any limitation of just war theory through which both physical and psychological vuln erabties of the competitor are exploited.(2) Currently, India and its like-minded states are making the best use of hybrid warfare tools in the exploitation of domestic fault lines like political, religious, economic, and societal to destabilize Pakistan internally. They have been employing diplomatic and economic pressures to malign Pakistan's image and make it economically weak. (3)

Pakistan's National security is encountering both traditional and non-traditional or sub­ conventional security challenges. The policymakers have adequately addressed the traditional security challenges, i.e., external military threats. Still, the state and society remain vulnerable to non-traditional security challenges, particularly, sub-conventional and Hybrid warfare. Both state and non-state actors are employing hybrid warfare tactics to bleed it. Realizing the new dimension of a threat, the Chief of Army Staff, General Qamar Javed Bajwa, alarmed that Pakistan needs a comprehensive strategy to combat the menace of hybrid conflict. On November 19, 2018, he said: "We are now con fronting hybrid conflict where the focus is shifting to subversion on religious, sectarian, ethnic and social issues. This needs a comprehensive national response."(4) Admittedly, hybrid warfare is the new entrant in the lexicon of warfare and is currently known as the fifth domain of war. It is a blend of'conventional/unconventional, regular /irregular, and information and cyber warfare.

Pakistan's adversaries have been operating below the threshold of conventional warfare, using a blend of military and paramilitary tools, including proxy forces, such as radicalized militants and ethnic separatists, cyber weapons, and information operations to coerce and shape its policies to their advantage. The changing characteristics of warfare or aggression certainly require reformation in the prevalent national security approaches. Therefore, the conceptualization and contextualization of Hybrid Warfare are imperative for avoiding the doctrinal lag. Though, every nation has to chalk out Hybrid warfare stratagem according to its own peculiar national security challenges, yet what is Hybrid Warfare? How the security managers of Pakistan prevent the state and society from the risks of Hybrid Warfare?

This study divided into four sections. The first section explains the concept of hybrid warfare. It is followed by a discussion of cyberspace as a new domain of Hybrid Warfare. The third section contains deliberation on the hybrid warfare challenges to Pakistan. The fourth section spells out the countermeasures to combat hybrid warfare challenges.

 

Hybrid Warfare: A non-linear war

The security analysts are employing a plethora of terminologies such as gray zone strategies,(5) Competition short of conflict, active measures, asymmetrical, unconventional, non-linear, sub-conventional, and new generation warfare to depict the current conflicts. Since the dawn of the nuclear era, the sub-conventional conflicts received more attraction from the makers of defense policy. The sub-conventional disputes are generally referred to as internal conflicts. It is "a generic term encompassing

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all armed conflict that is above the level of peaceful coexistence amongst states and below the threshold of war."(6) It includes "militancy, insurgency, proxy war and terrorism that may be employed as a means in an insurrectionist movement or undertaken independently."(7) However, now the catching term is hybrid warfare that is a blend of conventional/unconventional, regular/irregular, and information and cyber warfare. The hybrid war is the new entrant in the lexicon of warfare and currently referred to as the fifth generation of warfare. Frank G. Hoffman pointed out, "What once might have been distinct operational types or categorizations among terrorism and conventional, criminal, and irregular warfare have less utility today."(8) He added, "The evolving character of conflict that we currently face is best characterized by convergence. This includes the convergence of the physical and psychological, the kinetic and non-kinetic, and combatants and noncombatants. So, too, we see the convergence of military force and the interagency community, of states and non-state actors, and of the capabilities they are armed with."(9) This converging mode of battles is termed as Hybrid Warfare. The 2015 edition of Military Balance provides a very comprehensive definition of the latest manifestation of hybrid warfare, highlighting the methods employed, namely "the use of military and non-military tools in an integrated campaign, designed to achieve surprise, seize the initiative and gain psychological as well as physical advantages utilizing diplomatic means; sophisticated and rapid information, electronic and cyber operations; covert and occasionally overt military and intelligence action; and economic pressure."(10)

The hybrid warfare is broadening the idea of conflict to include the various elements of

national power to impose aggressor's will on its opponent(s) through integrated adaptive and asymmetric synchronized destructive effects on them in a multidimensional space and various spheres of life. In it, the primary focus is "taking control of over society, influencing the mindsets of people, and manipulating people, who are responsible for making important decisions in a state." Tatiana Carayannis opined that the hybrid wars are "organized around social networks, which link a wide range of actors and that are themselves embedded in the international system."(11) The foe manipulates core values, motivational factors, cultural biases, ethnic dissimilarities, sectarian differences to spoil the strategic, communicational, and critical infrastructure of a country.

Through the Hybrid warfare stratagem, one can create a battlefield of battlefields. The creation of the battlefield of battlefields is an effective military tactic because it provides an opportunity in a war to reduce the impacts of superiority of an adversary in one (military) battlefield by forcing it to deal with many battlefields, simultaneously, such as traditional, irregular, catastrophic terrorism and disruptive social behavior, etc. It is also a useful tool to provoke asymmetrical warfare in a hostile country. Theoretically speaking, the asymmetrical warfare strategy was the choice of a weaker actor, and thereby logically, the more vulnerable nations'or actors'adopt more hybrid warfare strategy and  tactics  to avoid attribution and retribution. Interestingly, nowadays, the militarily superior states are using hybrid warfare stratagems against their weaker opponents. It is because; the total war as an instrument of state policy has become less relevant than ever before, and resultantly, the probability offull-scale conventional war, especially between nuclearized strategic competitors, is gradually receding as an option for settling the disputes. Hence, the Great Powers have also been exercising hybrid warfare strategy against their competitors as well as militarily inferior nations to pursue their political objectives.

The hybrid  warfare  is a Western  term, which  became  popular  after the  annexation of

Crimea by Russia in 2014. The Russian analysts referred to it as "Gerasimov Doctrine" or "new generation warfare." or "non-linear war."(12) In February 2013, General Valery Gerasimov, the Chief of the Russian General Staff, described the new generation warfare as: "the broad use of political, economic , informational, humanitarian and other non-military means supplemented by civil disorder among the local population and concealed armed


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forces."(13) Chinese called itan unrestrained war.

The hybrid conflict seems a contemporary feature in a global strategic environment. However, the phenomenon of Hybrid Warfare is not new. Similar subversive techniques and tools were used in the past by states and their intelligence agencies. Williamson Murray and Peter R. Mansoor concluded that different great powers had used hybrid warfare since ancient times. They were using these tactics against the conventional superior military opponents.(14) Currently, hybrid war is based on the same old tactics of warfare. The only transformation is that the old tactics are operationalized in a combined way, along with information technology.(15) From 2005, the term'hybrid warfare'has become very popular, especially after the asymmetrical warfare strategy effectively used by the Hezbollah in the 2006 Lebanon War. Both Israel and Hezbollah used all national resources in the conflict against each other. They used advanced military technology against the regular forces and concurrently tried to explo t he population against the enemy's government.(16) Notably, Hezbollah avoided confrontation with Israeli armed forces and used hybrid warfare tools to pursue their objectives during the war.(17) Senior US military officials used the term "hybrid warfare" during testimony before Congress between 2008-2010 to describe the methods used by US adversaries in Iraq and Afghanistan, and what US forces are likely to encounter in future conflicts. The Russians' annexation of Crimea in 2014 has made hybrid warfare very alarming for the western strategic enclave.(18) They deliberated on hybrid warfare threats in the 2014 NATO Summit held in wales, and the Pentagon in its 2015 National Military Strategy expressed its serious concerns about" Hybrid Warfare."

 

Hybrid Warfare: Cyberspace the newest domain

The preceding discussion underscores that contemporary conflicts are no longer battled on conventional battlefields alone, but they have fought asymmetrically over the digital world, cyberspace, social media, etc. The advanced digital technology provides vast information about one another's strengths and weaknesses. Therefore, one can easily exploit vulnerabilities of the adversary through the effective use of digital technology or modern cyber technology, which is very lethal and effective, and chances of countering cyber assault are very remote.(19) The adversaries manipulate core values, motivational factors, cultural biases, ethnic dissimilarities, sectarian differences to spoil the strategic, communicational, and critical infrastructure of a country. The security analysts have consensus that the future of hybrid warfare is cyberspace. Cyberweapons can be used against physical, syntax, and semantic targets. The hybrid warfare stratagem is to penetrate overtly and covertly in the target state's networks to interfere, disrupt, coerce, and in some cases, destroy. Hence, in any future hybrid warfare, there will be a continuation of the existing cyber conflict, albeit with higher intensity, and possibly as a leading force multiplier. For example,''.As per the 17 intelligence agencies of the United States (US), Russia had penetrated the Democratic National Convention using cyber techniques, thereby influencing the presidential elections of the US in 2016 ." (20) Bastian Giegerich opined that: "Information operations are an integral part of hybrid warfare used to form narratives and, generally, to influence political opinion -making among the target population. Strategic communication offers an opportunity to counteract this, but only if it is coherent, consistent, fast, and precise."(21)

Currently, the information and psychological warfare are the foundations for a victory in the new-generation war or hybrid war. Through cyberspace, one can conduct punishing political, economic, and military campaigns against broader populations and noncombatants. While analyzing network warfare Yu Zhonghai pointed out to use cyberspace to (a) control and manipulate public opinion and attack the government; (b) conduct network monitoring and information attacks on government and military


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systems, and (c) provide substantial funding and information to support opposition groups.(22) For instance, in 2008, cyber-attacks were carried against Georgia to create and exploit intrastate conflicts. Through concocted messages and emails, mistrust was created among the Georgian ruling elite and masses to destabilize political, financial, and governmental organizations for strengthening the separatist movement. Consequently, the internal anarchy forced the President to declare Georgia as a state of war.(2 3)

 

Pakistan's National Security: Hybrid Warfare Challenges

Pakistan, currently, is facing threats to its national security from both internal and external enemies. Its adversaries are targeting and operating below the threshold of conventional warfare, using a blend of military and paramilitary tools, including proxy forces, such as radicalized militants and ethnic separatists, cyber instruments, and information operations to coerce and shape its policies to their advantage. They are using malicious propaganda to exploit religious and ethnic fissures of society. They are financing radicalized militants for conducting terrorist activities in the country. The transnational terrorist organizations and their local associates did devastating terrorist activities in the entire country since the beginning of the twenty-first century. They k led both law enforcement agencies personnel as well as innocent civilians.(24)

Pakistan's conventional preparedness and nuclear weapon capability deterred India's military aggression. Therefore, the Indians have been using multiple instruments of power and influ ence, with an emphasis on non-military tools against Pakistan. They have been exercising a broad range of subversive devices of hybrid warfare to destabilize Pakistan. It has been hatching conspiracies to provoke asymmetric warfare by exploiting domestic ethnic, sectarian, sociocultural, and economic fault lines. On December 31, 2006, the chief

of the Army Staff General J.J. Singh released'Doctrine for Sub-Conventional Operations.'

'The philosophy of "Iron Fist with Velvet Glove.''

Currently, New Delhi has been engaged in exploiting non-attributable means like cyber, information warfare, surprise, deception, and extensive use of proxy forces to jeopardize Pakistan's national security. According to the findings of Comparitech, Pakistan is standing 7th among the worst cybersecurity countries.(25) It is vulnerable to cyber challenges such, cyber-terrorism, data espionage, data and information theft, and cyber warfare. Besides, through it like-minded states, New Delhi has been using economic pressure, intelligence operations, and above all, its armed forces posturing to obstruct Pakistan's economic growth.

Pakistani society is a combination of diverse ethnic, lingual, cultural, and sectarian sects. The New Delhi has been providing material resources, intellectual and media support to the Baluch dissidents in Baluchistan, and radicalized militants groups operating in Pakistan . Besides, due to Afghanistan's anarchical situation , many intelligence agencies and transnational terrorist organizations have been using its territory to launch indirect sub-conventional Warfare against Pakistan. Since 2018, the Pashtun Tahafuz Movement (PTM) led by Manzoor Pashteen has got the attention of Pashtun. It has been criticizing institutions, particularly the Pakistan army.(26) Precisely, TTP, BLA, BLF are primary proxies of New Delhi and Kabul. They are receiving financial support and training from RAW and Afghanistan National Directorate of Security (NOS) to destabilize Pakistan. In November 2018, the attack on the Chinese consulate in Karachi by BLA was supported by India was part of its hybrid war.

 

CPEC: Target of Hybrid Warfare

Pakistan is poised to become the world's top hybrid warfare battleground due to its pivotal role in China's Belt Road Initiative (BRI), which is seen by the Americans as an instrument


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for China's global economic and political domination. China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) and the emergence of Gwadar seaport frustrates its adversaries. The promising potential of the project has upset the Indian ruling elite and Trump administration .(27) Prime Minister Narendra Modi is hell-bent on destroying the project. Neither India nor the US could employ conventional war to derail the CPEC project. It is because; the conventional war as an instrument of state policy has become less relevant than ever before between nuclear-armed rivals and resultantly, the probability of full-scale conventional war, especially between nuclearized strategic competitors, is gradually receding as an option for settling the disputes. After exhausting political and diplomatic means to terminate CPEC, Premier Modi, with the cooperation of Trump administration, has been employing a Hybrid warfare stratagem to derail the project.

India has been simultaneously and adaptively employing a fused mix of conventional small weapons, irregular tactics, terrorism, and criminal behavior to ruin the project. At the same time, the United States is utilizing economic pressure to obstruct the work on CPEC, and the local cliques on the behest of foreign powers have been commissioning internet-enabled propaganda or distracting debate to scandalize the CPEC. The Secretary of State Mike Pompeo expressed the Americans'frustration over CPEC on July 30, 2018. He stated: "Make no mistake: we would be watching what the IMF does. There's no rationale for IMF tax dollars - and associated with that, American dollars that are part of the IMF funding - for those to go to bail out Chinese bondholders or China itself." (28) Washington has been applying pressure on Islamabad to "forego CPEC and align itself squarely with the US against China."(29) A few analysts deliberately or inadvertently have been articulating concocted stories against the hopeful benefits of the CPEC project. Frequently, concocted stories have been published in the national and international press to obstruct the smooth working on the CPEC. They propagate that Pakistan will become China's economic colony due to high loans in terms of CPEC.(30)

New Delhi has been continuously churning out propaganda against the project. Besides,

the Indian intelligence agency RAW has been sponsoring and conducting terrorist activities in Pakistan, particularly at the sites of CPEC, to impede the developmental work and frustrate the investors. It had crafted a terrorist network in Baluchistan to obstruct the construction of CPEC infrastructure. On March 3, 2016, during a counter-intelligence operation, the Pakistani law enforcement agencies arrested RAW's chief operator, a serving commander in the Indian Navy Kulbhushan Yadav, managing terrorist activities in Baluchistan, and quashed the terrorist network. Jadhav confessed that "India is providing support to militants and Baloch separatists to take subversive and terrorist attacks in Pakistan. It is also trying to disrupt and sabotage through terrorist activities and provocation of Baloch militants against CPEC".(31) RAW has been financing and supporting radicalized Sunni militants and Baloch separatist groups in the province to intensify the sectarian divide and obstruct the CPEC projects. It has carefully crafted to ignite the sectarian divide in the Quetta to spoil the societal and religious harmony among the people of the area and also terrorize the investors, who have been contemplating to invest in Baluchistan due to the development of Gwadar city's port and international airport. The Hazaras (a faction of Shia) in Quetta were the main target ofTehreek-e-Taliban and Lashkar-e-Jhangvi. Both are Sunni radicalized militant organizations.

 

Countering the Risks of Hybrid Warfare

In the prevalent uncertain and dynamic world, Pakistan has been wrestling with a complex, volatile, and uncertain security puzzles. Its ability to protect its core values would arise from its competence to defend its integrity and interests against likely present and future threats emanating from the Hybrid warfare stratagem of its adversaries. Hybrid warfare is

 


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a military strategy that blends conventional warfare, asymmetric Warfare, irregular Warfare, proxy Warfare, offset warfare, non-linear Warfare, and cyber Warfare, yet chalking out a counter-hybrid warfare strategy is no longer business as usual. As Clausewitz stated, "Every age has its own kind of war, its own limiting conditions, and its own peculiar preconceptions."(32) He cautioned about the changing character of war "when  cavalry  charges  and  smoothbore  cannons  were  the  most  impressive  tools of

military might, but they have held up well over time."(33) Nonetheless, today, we are encountering a new kind of war and aggression hybrid warfare. The changing

characteristics of warfare or aggression certainly require reformation in the standard national security approaches. Hence, to encounter such a complex strategic threat or a new kind of war and aggression surfacing due to foe's hybrid warfare strategy, the makers of Pakistan's national security policy needs to think out of the box. They need new rules and methods for protecting society and defending the state. For practical purposes, the new strategy must be based on a holistic approach, i.e., synthesis of the economic, political, and religious, media, and military responses. They have to securitize the threat as a complex, ambiguous, volatile, and above all multidimensional and also aware the people of Pakistan that the Pakistani Armed Forces alone could not counter hybrid warfare threat effectively.

The Pakistani armed forces have undertaken synergetic national efforts such as operation Zarb-e-Azb (June 2014) to erase the safe hideouts of the terrorist groups located in North Waziristan agency and operation Radd-ul-Fasaad (February 2017) to eliminate the secret terrorist sleeper cells across the country. Moreover, the National Action Plan, adopted in 2015, is equally important to combat the adversaries'hybrid warfare onslaught comprehensively. Islamabad has been struggling to thwart the Hybrid Warfare risks. Despite it, there is a room for improving the countermeas ures. General Bajwa rightly pointed out that "We now have a greater responsibility to ensure that our people, especially the youth, stay aware and steadfast against propaganda onslaught being launched through soft offensive."

The makers of Pakistan's hybrid warfare strategy have to chalk out a grand strategy to respond to this multilayer threat in a unified manner. The entire nation t he government and all its organs (departments and institutions), the media, and the civil society

collectively respond to the hybrid warfare aggression in an integrated fashion. The defensive apparatus against the hybrid warfare onslaught ought to include both kinetic and non-kinetic defensive fences. Hence, against a highly sophisticated, mature, and stealth strategy perpetrated against Pakistani state and society, we need to chalk out a holistic counter-strategy. While devising a holistic approach to counter /tackle hybrid warfare threats, the makers of strategy obtain input from all government agencies, armed forces, private sector businesses, print and electronic media organizations, academia, and leading civil society organizations, which are involved in socio-political issues of the society. The policymakers ought to understand that the non-kinetic defensive mechanism is based on the humane and people-centric approach. It upholds the laws of the land and ensures human rights without undermining or compromising on the write of the state. In unavoidable contingencies, law enforcement agencies use minimum Kinetic means without causing any collateral damage. Without any hold, however, the law enforcement agencies use overwhelming force against the foreign and hardcore terrorists.

 

Recommendations

Although, the term hybrid warfare has gradually been gaining acceptability in Pakistani security policy discourse, yet its adequate securitization is required. Therefore, the government will establish the Hybrid Warfare Stratagem Center (HWSC). The Center will

 


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assist in building up the capability to enable Pakistani policymakers to understand the hybrid warfare threat phenomenon better, develop metrics to get a grip on events, systematically address vulnerabilities, and contemplate how hybrid threats might develop in the future. Besides, the Center will cultivate Public-Private Partnership to solidify defensive fence against the hybrid warfare aggression.

The HWSC will also devise an interconnected information sharing system extended over all government offices, intelligence agencies, and the armed forces. The civilian law enforcement agencies'coordination apparatus requires restructuring to meet the demands of modern time. Today, various departments/institutions (Police and intelligence agencies) information sharing and coordination are weak. They ought to be trained and equipped to employ intelligently Artificial Intelligence, etc. Moreover, the government needs to cultivate a culture of sharing information and collectively chalking out countermeasures between/among the various provincial and central law enforcement agencies. They have to shun the approach of acting in isolation. Hence, a

pyramid  approachnetw ork  framework  devised  from bottom  to top in information

gathering and decision making from top to bottom.

 

Second, the federal and provincial governments need to revamp existing laws and also legislate new rules to improve the investigation and adjudication apparatus of the state so that they could uphold the laws ofland and respect human rights and employ only kinetic means against hardcore criminals to construct a secure environment without causing collateral intangible and tangible damage.

Third, in hybrid warfare, media is seen as one of the lethal and a sophisticated weapon to target the enemy's will and exploit its weaknesses. It is used to target the opponent population by changing their perception regarding their government. Therefore, the government ensures that Pakistan Electronic Media Regulatory Authority (PEMRA) efficiently imposes regulatory laws on media houses to prevent disinformation, misinformation, and fake news. Besides, media promote national narrative. Third, improve the capacity of civilian law enforcement agencies to undertake, manage, combat, and quash sub-conventional threats effectively to secure both society and state int ernally. That is why "the good government will always place the task of'securing the state'at the top of its priorities. With security comes confidence, economic and social progress, and investment in the future. But the good government also recognizes that security needs the active support of the public and thus the right relationship between justice, civic harmony, wise administration, fortitude, prudence, and the other virtues to which the wise ruler and government should aspire."(34)

Fourth, the government will equip and train civil law enforcement agencies adequately.

Among the civilian armed forces , Police force ought to be the leading force in combating the sub-conventional conflicts, including hybrid warfare or non-linear threats. National security observers believe that Police force instead of military force is a useful tool to manage and resolve the sub-conventional conflicts. A RAND Corporation study titled How Terrorist Groups End concluded that efficient Police with the support of intelligence agencies rather than military force delivers better counterterrorism results. Douglas P. Lackey opined that "The killing of civilians by terrorists is not war, but murder, so the social genre of terrorism is a crime, and terrorists should be classified as criminals." He added, "If terrorists are criminals, their natural antagonists are the police." According to Douglas, "most of the activities considered vital for any counterterrorism effort fall within the scope of standard police activity, including the forensic analysis of terrorist attack sites, gleaning information from abandoned terrorist camps, searching  suspected terrorist locations, the penetration of terrorist organizations by undercover agents, surveillance of suspicious sites, monitoring suspects, and maintaining databases of


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suspects." Therefore, the police force could be trained and equipped to deal with internal law and order crises under the SGW environment. The other paramilitary forces and armed forces assist Police or act as a backup force to combat the hardened criminals.

Fifth, Pakistani society is vulnerable to two social evils, i.e., political nepotism and manipulation. They are actually the cause of corruption and ill performance of the civilian law enforcement agencies, particularly the police force. Without improving the institutional structures to ensure a job, promotion, and posting security of civilian forces, despite having brilliant human resources, they cannot deliver. Besides, the civilian forces training institutions need to be modernized, and personals are also equipped with advanced technological gadgets, including weaponry.

Finally, the government needs to sensitize the civil society about sub-conventional conflicts and hybrid warfare to garner public support against the enemy. Without the ardent support of civil society, the law enforcement agencies neither combat the fifth column operators in the Pakistani society nor the menace of terrorism. In hybrid warfare, the primary target is innocent civilians. Hence, the vigilant civil society is irrefutably the first line of defense against hybrid warfare and winning the hearts and minds of the people.

 

Conclusion

India and its like-minded nations have grown proficient at using hybrid-warfare tactics to undermine Pakistan's national security. They have been using terrorism, spreading fake news, propaganda, and rumors through social media by employing cyber technology and exploiting societal fault lines. While polarizing the society and creating a rift among the state institutions through hybrid warfare means, India has been keeping engaged Pakistani armed forces by enduring military tension at border and continuously violating international border laws through firing at the Line of Control. Thus, the Pakistani ruling elite needs to revamp its national security strategy to improve and publicize its socio­ religi_ous narrative to prevent both society and state from hybrid warfare blitzkrieg. Thus, the situation warrants the adoption of a compressive policy involving the entire nation to encounter hybrid warfare aggression.

 

 

References

(1)             Since the dawn of the twenty-first century, the war has been fought on unconventional fields rather than conventional and physical grounds. The tools of war have changed from regular armies to terrorism, irregular, cyber, and informational. Hew Strachan and Sibylle Scheepers, The Changing Character of War (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2013), David J. Lonsdale, The Nature of War in the Information Age: Clausewitzian Future (London: F. Cass, 2005).

(2)             Frank G. Hoffman, "Hybrid Warfare and Challenges," National Defense University Press, Joint Force Quarterly 1, no.52 (2009): 34-39.

(3)             Andras Racz, Russia's Hybrid War in Ukraine: Breaking the Enemy's Ability to Resist (Helsinki: Finnish Institute of International Affairs, 2015).

(4)             Muhammad Anis, "Pakistan confronting hybrid conflict: COAS," The News International, November 20, 2018. https://www.thenews.com.pk/print/396186-pakistan-confronting-hybrid­ conflict-coas accessed on January 2, 20 20.

(5)             A US Special Operations Command White Paper defined gray zone challenges as competitive interaction among and within state and non-state actors that fall between the traditional war and peace duality. They characterized by

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ambiguity about the nature of the conflict, opacity of the parties involved, or uncertainty about the relevant policy and legal frameworks. Senior SOF Commanders asserted, " The gray zone characterized by intense political, economic, informational and military competition more fervent in nature than normal steady-state diplomacy, yet short of conventional war.

(6)            Gautam Navlakh, "Doctrine for Sub-Conventional Operations: A Critique," Economic and Political Weekly, Vol. 42, No. 14, April 7-13, 2007, pp. 1242- 1246.

(7)     Gautam Navlakh, "Doctrine for Sub-Conventional Operations: A Critique," Economic and Political Weekly, Vol. 42, No. 14, April 7-13, 2007, pp. 1242- 1246.

(8)            Frank G. Hoffman, "Hybrid warfare and Challenges," JFQ, Issue 52, 1st quarter 2009, p. 34.

(9)           Frank G. Hoffman, "Hybrid warfare and Challenges," JFQ, Issue 52, 1st quarter 2009, p. 34.

(10)        Quoted James K. Wither, "Making Sense of Hybrid Warfare," Connections, Vol. 15, No. 2 (Spring 2016), pp. 73-87,  76. "Complex  Crises  Call for Adaptable and Durable Capabilities," The Military Balance, 115:1 (2015): 5.

(11)      Tatiana Carayannis, "The Complex Wars of the Congo," Journal of Asian and African Studies, June 1, 2003, 232-255,

(12)       James K. Wither, "Making Sense of Hybrid Warfare," Connections, Vol. 15, No. 2 (Spring 2016), pp. 73-87, 80

(13)       James K. Wither, "Making Sense of Hybrid Warfare," Connections, Vol. 15, No. 2 (Spring 2016), pp. 73-87, 80-81.

(14)       Williamson Murray and Peter R. Mansoor, Hybrid Warfare: Fighting Complex Opponents from the Ancient World to the Present (New York: Cambridge University Press, 2012).

(15)       Andrew J. Duncan, "New'Hybrid War'or Old'Dirty Tricks'? The Gerasimov Debate and Russia's Response to the Contemporary Operating Environment," Canadian Military Journal 17, no. 3(2017): 8-16.

(16)        Dr. Russell W. Glenn, "Thoughts on "Hybrid" Conflict ," Small Wars Journal 2 (2009): 1-8.

(17)        Erik Reichborn Kjennerud and Patrick Cullen, "What Is Hybrid Warfare?" Norwegian Institute of International Affairs (2016): 4.

(18)       US Army College Professor Antulio J. Echevarria II opined, "Gray Zone war sits below the threshold and level of violence to prompt UN security council resolutions or NATO Article 5 response yet [its] not peace." He claimed that countries such as Russia and China "exploit this zone of ambiguity to accomplish'wartime-like'objectives outside the normal scope of what military strategists and campaign planners are legally authorized or professionally             trained to address."

(19)        Mihai Marcel Neag, "a new typology of war - the hybrid war," Military Art and Science 1, no. 81 (2016): 14-20.

(20)        Major General PK Chakravorty, VSM (Retd), "Weapons and Missiles in the Indian environment," Occasional Paper (New Delhi: Vivekananda International Foundation, September 2017), p. 3.

(21)        Bastian Giegerich , "Hybrid Warfare and the Changing Character of Conflict," Connections, Vol. 15, No. 2 (Spring 2016), pp. 65-72, 71.

(22)        Lora Saalman, "New Domains of Crossover and Concern in Cyberspace," Lora

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Salman, ed. China-Russia Relations and Regional Dynamics From Pivots to Peripheral Diplomacy (Sweden, SIPRI, March 2017), pp. 59-60.

(23)         Eneken Tikk and Kristel Riinnimeri, "Cyber Attacks Against Georgia: Legal Lessons Identified," Cooperative Cyber Defence Centre of Excellence 1 (2008): 4-5.

(24)         To terrorize the government employs commuting on the Makran Coastal Highway; the terrorist offloaded 14 employs of Pakistan Navy and Coast Guards and shot them cold-bloodedly in April 2019.

(25)         Ambreen Shabbir, "Pakistan Ranked 7th Worst in Cyber-Security", ProPakistani.pk, accessed June 26, 2019,

https:/ /propakistani.pk/2019/02/14/pakistan-ranked-7th-worst-in-cyber­ security-report/

(26)        Nazir Ahmad Mir, "Pashtun Nationalism in Search of Political Space and the State in Pakistan," Strategic Analysis 42, no. 4 (2018): 443-450.

(27)         Korybko, Andrew. Applicability of Hybrid Warfare to Pakistan: Challenges and Possible Responses (Islamabad: The Faculty of Contemporary Studies, National Defence University, 2017) https://www.ndu.edu.pk/issra/issra_pub/articles/ndu-journal/NDU­ Journal-2017 /12-Applicability-of-Hybrid-Warfare-to-Pakistan.pdf, accessed October 2019.

(28)         Dr. Zafar Nawaz Jaspal, "CPEC Exposed to Hybrid Warfare", Melange International Magazine, October 17, 2018, accessed May 22, 2019, https://www.melangemagazine.biz/cpec-exposed-to-hybrid-warfare/.

(29)         Salman Bashir, "Pakistan's strategic dilemma: China or US," Arab News, December 30, 2019, https://www.arabnews.pk/node/1606071, accessed on January 1, 2019.

(30)         Ikram Sehgal, "Hybrid Warfare Challenges for Pakistan," Daily Times, October 18, 2018, https:/ /dailytimes.com.pk/311488/hybrid-warfare-challenges-for­ pakistan/.

(31)         Sabtain Ahmed Dar,''Ajit Doval and Kulbhushan: Configuring Subversion

inside Pakistan," Global Village Space, February 18, 2019,

https:/ /www.globalvillagespace.com/ajit-doval-and-kulbhushan­ configuring-subversion-inside-pakistan/

(32)         Carl von Clausewitz, in Michael Howard and Peter Paret, ed. On War (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 1989), 593.

(33)         Ian Hutchinson, "Hybrid warfare: Soldier behind the curtain," Daily Reporter, March 12, 2018. http://www.greenfieldreporter.com/2018/03/13/hybrid_warfare_the_soldi er_behind_the_curtain/, accessed on September 17, 2018.

(34)       Sir David Omand GCB, "Securing the State: National Security in Contemporary times," RSIS Working Paper, No. 251, (Singapore: S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies, November 6, 2012), pp. 2-3.

                                      Center of Pakistan and International Relations (COPAIR) 11

CO PAIR



Center of Pakistan and International Relations

Center of Pakistan and International Relations is a strategic think tank which work on policy recommendations for decision makers in National and International Affairs and its board of advisors suggest project solutions to various challanges faced by Pakistan due to its geo strategic location and being the nuclear Islamic empire.Hybrid Warfare and Cyber Security including challanges like Deep Fake News are the current threat to National Security and stability of Pakistan.Government and Defence forces need to address issues caused by Artificial Intelligence through Tech Innovative Ideas and finding solution of National Security and Power by using Artificial Intelligence to build national cohesion .The research publications of COPAIR are overviewing the current challanges of Hybrid Warfare with certain recommendations for the Policy Makers. Center of Pakistan and International Relations is launching Center of Artificial Intelligence to do research and development in this new field and support executives through mentoring and training with the collaboration of the leading international institute providing degree in Artificial Intelligence.Amna Munawwar Awan the President of COPAIR with the supervision of Dr Sajid Baloch Advisor on Artificial Intelligence in COPAIR and Dr Usman Qayyum Advisor on Cyber Security and Dr Zafar Jaspal Advisor on Foreign Policy compiled these papers . Center of Pakistan and International Relations publish reports onvarious subjects on regular basis.

Office # 408/407, 4th Floor, Evacuee Trust, Agha Khan Road, F-5/1,Islamabad, Pakistan, Contact No +92-0300-8581438.0300-8581439, amnamunawwarawan@gmail.com,www.copair.org



 

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